I’ve noticed something recently in social media, and it has me curious. By all accounts (instapolls, eyewitness testimony, Stephanie Cutter), Barack Obama won the second debate. Normally, when your team wins, you cheer, right? According to social media, though… um… apparently not.
It’s interesting, because instead of cheering their guy on, Obama supporters on Facebook, Twitter and whatever else is out there are all trashing Mitt Romney. I saw maybe a few posts saying “Obama won,” but there was almost no cheering. Immediately afterward, I watched several good friends of mine blow up my various feeds with Romney attacks, insults and outright vulgar statements. A fine method of political discourse for some, but to me it’s just a curious occurrence.
It’s actually pretty much the opposite of what was happening in the beginning of the election cycle. Conservatives were attacking Obama because they hadn’t been able to rally behind Romney. Romney was the “Massachusetts Moderate” and had beaten down every “true” conservative in his path, and Obama’s supporters were as high on the guy as they were in 2008. But then, somewhere along the way, things changed. Now, Republicans and conservatives alike are championing Romney while Democrats and liberals (yes, I still differentiate the two) are attacking their political opposite instead of rah-rahing Obama.
I’m thinking base problem, here. I’ve mentioned on the radio before (back when I was still on the air, which I totally miss) that Obama was risking a hell of a lot playing the niche game, going after one base, then having to apologize to another base before going after a third base and pissing the other bases off. The Democratic voters are extremely multicultural (much more so than the Republican voters), and sometimes those cultures don’t all agree. Obama has had trouble keeping all those voters unified. It’s not that morale is down so much as excitement is.
But what does this mean for now? It ties into what the polls are currently showing. Obama is slipping, and Romney is picking up votes. I’m not calling the race or anything. I’m maintaining my current prediction of Romney winning the popular vote, but losing the electoral. With less than three weeks left. it’s way too close to call, and I’m not a gambling man anymore (I got addicted to the slots in the early Pokemon games, you see). The president did not get any momentum for himself in the second debate, he just slowed Romney’s. Obama is in dangerous territory.